CURRENT MEETING REPORT Minutes of the CIDR Deployment Working Group (CIDRD) Reported by Geoff Huston, Telstra 1. Report on IP Address Space Usage and Lifetime (presented by Tony Li and Frank Solensky) 1.a. Tony Li's Analysis Tony summarized the IPv4 address space allocations, indicating total address allocations over time. The recent address allocation metrics were related to linear forward extrapolation and the slight reduction in demand levels across 1995 implied that this linear extrapolation implied an increase in expectation of address space lifetime. At the San Jose IETF (Dec 94), Tony had estimated a lifetime of the year 2008 +/- 3 years. By the Danvers IETF (Apr 95), growth slope appeared to drop, which has been constant at a slightly reduced linear tangent across 1995. The projected lifetime is the year 2018 +/- 8 years. The basis of these figures was discussed, noting that Regional Registry allocations were reflected as single anomalies in these figures, and further regional block allocations may result in some degree of variance in this projection. The slides are to be found at ftp://ftp.cisco.com/tli/ietf.slides.ps 1.b. Frank Solensky's Analysis Frank presented his slides on similar projections. The techniques for statistical extrapolation use a logistical model where there is an implicit assumption of saturation of demand at some point in the future. The extrapolation attempts to predict the time of saturation of demand and the level of resource use at the saturation point. The analysis of the 128/2 space indicated that demand saturation was already occuring, and that this would stabilize at 62% of the 128/2 address space. Analysis of the 192/3 space indicated that due to 1992-1995 data and 1994-1995 data, there were two possible interpretations. The full data set ("raw") yields a logistic interpretation of saturation levels of 38% of the 192/3 address space achieved by 1997 and a 95% confidence level of +- 2%. The partial data set ("smoothed") yields a logistic interpretation of a saturation level of 90% of the 192/3 address space achieved by 2006, with a 95% confidence level of +- 35%. These slides are reported (by Frank) to reside at ftp://research.ftp.com/~solensky/cidrd.ps However, the minute taker was unable to locate this archive. The logistic assumptions were challenged, in so far as the observation was made that there was no natural limit to demand other than exhaustion of the unallocated address pool. 1.c 0/1 Space Report Bill Manning noted that in the previous six months 13% of the 0/1 space has been recovered through voluntary returning of address space to the address registry. 2. Report on Routing Table Growth (Erik-Jan Bos) Erik-Jan reported on the growth in the number of prefixes present in routers. The number of total nets continues to grow, as is the number of visible AS numbers in the routing tables. The routing table was reported to contain 30,984 entries, an increase of 10% across the previous four months. 62% of AS numbers are advertising CIDR routes, which is an improvement since the Stockholm IETF (July 1995), and 77% of ASs announcing more than one route are advertising CIDR routes. An analysis of the routing entries indicate that the routing table is holding entries of some 822,436,999 hosts and using current estimates of Internet host population of some 8,000,000 connected hosts, the total address space utilization efficiency is currently at 1%. Since January 1994, Erik-Jan has been maintaining a database, with entries for each hour, of the number of BGP entries in Amsterdam1.dante.net. This plot indicates a recent reduction in growth levels, although a strong linear trend is evident in the figure during the period between June 1994-December 1995. This indicates that the CIDR effort has to date managed to reduce the exponential rate of routing table growth to a linear growth rate of 8,000 entries per year over the past 18 months. Erik-JanŐs slides are located at: http://surver.wind.surfnet.nl/~bos/cd/cidrd.html 3. Documents 3.1 Appeal to return unused address space This document has been hummed by the working group and will be submitted to the IESG for publication as a BCP document. 3.2 RFC1597bis This document has been hummed by the working group. The issue of DNS configuration was raised where a DNS environment was intended to be structured with both public Internet and 1597 environment visibility. The document is to be revised by Yakov Rekhter with the issue noted in a warning paragraph and passed through the working group for final review as a BCP submission. 3.3 Address Ownership This document was reviewed in terms of security considerations where renumbering may impact on the correct operation of security environments. The document is to be edited with this matter noted and then passed through the working group for review. 3.4 Class A subnet deployment considerations This document was hummed by the working group and is to be passed to the IESG as a Working Group Informational RFC. 3.5 Net 39 experiment report This document is being revised and Bill Manning will pass it to the CIDRD Working Group for review within two months for consideration as a Working Group Informational RFC. 3.6 CNAME extensions to in-addr DNS This document is being revised to accomodate comments relating to the operation of the DNS and will be tracked through the DNSIND Working Group. 4. Non-Local Aggregation The group discussed the use of Proxy Aggregation techniques in terms of where this can be used within the routing space to reduce overall routing table size. Tools for detection of aggregation conditions were considered a possibility here and such routing table analysis tools will be tested by working group members. The Working Group will progress this through the preparation of an internet draft which describes the cases where Proxy Aggregaton can be undertaken without impact on the policy integrity of the routing space, and the conditions where such indirect aggregation is not feasible. 5. Charging for Routing Advertisements Yakov Rekhter presented the issues which are relevant to consideration of charging for routing advertisements. The rationale presented was that in order to improve the aggregation of information within the routing space, to improve the overall efficiency of address space utilization and improve the operational efficiency of the routing space techncal solutions were potentially inadequate drivers, and that introduction of an economic factor into this space would be a strong positive feedback for achievement of these internet-wide objectives. The presentation examined route charges as a component of bilateral provider interaction and examined the cases where such interaction would take place. This covers the push situation where routing advertisements are pushed in the direction of a default-less routing point, and the pull situation where the routing advertisements are pulled outward from the default-less routing point.